| I | Business Sentiments for April – September 2010 |
| 1. | The manufacturing sector expects a buoyant business outlook for the period April - September 2010, according to the latest business expectations survey. A weighted 34 per cent of firms expect business conditions to improve while a weighted 5 per cent foresee deterioration. Overall, a net weighted balance of 29 per cent of manufacturers anticipates a more favorable business situation in the next six months ending September 2010, as compared to the first quarter of 2010. |
| 2. | Within the manufacturing sector, the electronics cluster is the most optimistic, with a net weighted balance of 44 per cent of firms expecting business situation to improve. This optimism stems from higher demand for electronics and info-communications products worldwide. |
| 3. | The precision engineering cluster is the next most optimistic, with a net weighted balance of 32 per cent of firms expecting improved business conditions in the six months ahead. The cluster anticipates higher orders for machinery and precision modules & components (e.g. leadframes, metal stampings, springs, electronic connectors) as global industrial activities increased. The rest of the manufacturing clusters are also confident of more favourable business conditions in the period April – September 2010 due to improved global economic prospects. |
| II | Output Forecast for April - June 2010 |
| 4. | Compared to the first quarter of 2010, a net weighted 30 per cent of manufacturers expect output to increase in the second quarter of 2010. The higher output projection is due mainly to improving order books among the manufacturers. |
| 5. | All clusters project higher level of output in the second quarter of 2010 compared to a quarter ago. Firms in the electronics cluster are the most bullish, with a net weighted balance of 40 per cent of them projecting higher output in the second quarter of 2010. The biomedical manufacturing cluster is the next most bullish, with a net weighted balance of 31 per cent of firms forecasting higher output. Biomedical output is expected to increase as a different pharmaceutical-mix is planned to be produced over the next three months. |
| III | Employment Forecast for April – June 2010 |
| 6. | The employment outlook in the manufacturing sector for the second quarter of 2010 is positive as manufacturers are expected to increase headcount to meet the higher volume of orders anticipated. Overall, a weighted 95 per cent of manufacturers expect employment in the second quarter of 2010 to increase or remain similar to the first quarter of 2010. Within the manufacturing sector, the precision engineering, transport engineering and electronics clusters have the most positive employment outlook in the three months ahead. |
| IV | Factors Affecting Export Orders for April – June 2010 |
| 7. | A weighted 50 per cent of firms in the manufacturing sector reported no limiting factors that will affect their ability to obtain direct export orders in the second quarter of 2010. Of the weighted 43 per cent of manufacturers that indicated export constraints, price competition from overseas competitors and political/economic conditions are the leading factors. |
| V | Investment Plans for April 2010 – March 2011 |
| 8. | As the economy shows signs of improvement, a weighted 71 per cent of manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery in the next twelve months (April 2010 – March 2011). Of the firms that have these investment plans, 63 per cent of them expect higher or similar level of capital expenditure, compared to the past twelve months. The planned investments are mainly for the expansion of production capacity of existing products, the replacement of worn-out equipment, and the manufacture of new products. |
| | Editors' Note: For further information on the business expectation results, please contact Mr Chong Tse Ming (Tel: 6832-6677 / hp: 9154-7959 / Email: quin_chong@edb.gov.sg). For media enquiries, please contact Mr Alex Tan (Tel: 6832-6284 / hp: 9841-0392 / Email: alex_tan@edb.gov.sg).
Updates on business expectations of the manufacturing sector for the fourth quarter of 2009 are available on http://www.news.gov.sg and http://www.sedb.com
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| | Technical Notes The Survey of Business Expectations of the Manufacturing Sector for the second quarter of 2010 was conducted between March and April 2010 by the Economic Development Board. Out of a total of 401 manufacturing establishments surveyed, 95 per cent responded. These establishments were asked to indicate their expectation of general business conditions and other indicators such as output and employment. Their views are expressed in terms of directional change (i.e. “up”, “same” or “down). Individual responses provided by the establishments are weighted by their contribution to employment and value added. These responses are then aggregated at cluster, sub-cluster and overall manufacturing level, and presented in terms of weighted percentages. The net weighted balance is commonly used to reflect the direction and extent of the business sentiments. It is the difference between the weighted percentage of 'up' responses and the weighted percentage of 'down' responses. For example, if weighted responses for overall manufacturing output yields a net weighted balance of +30 per cent, the plus sign before the percentage figure indicates a positive balance or net upward movement, and not a 30 per cent increase in output. Similarly, a minus sign before the percentage indicates a downward trend and not a decline by that amount.
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